![]() The forecast is at least a 50 per cent chance of La Niña continuing from January to March 2023 before returning to ENSO neutral. As of December 2022, Afghanistan was experiencing the first triple-dip impact of La Niña globally since 1998-2001, which was also a period of multi-year drought and high levels of food insecurity in Afghanistan. Severe needs from drought have reached a crisis point. The number of atypical sudden-onset disasters, such as floods and earthquakes, was higher in 2022 than preceding years and the scenario anticipates that these patterns may be the norm moving ahead. Deterioration is expected in the first quarter of 2023 due to the simultaneous effects of winter and the lean season, sustained high food prices, reduced income and unemployment and continued economic decline.Īfghanistan is highly prone to natural hazards, whose frequency and intensity are exacerbated by the effects of climate change, increasing humanitarian needs and structural limitations in mitigating disaster impact. Within this reality, 17 million people face acute hunger in 2023, including 6 million people at emergency levels of food insecurity, one step away from famine – and one of the highest figures worldwide. The economy immediately went into free-fall, with the disruption to markets, financial and trade mechanisms, the freezing of US$9.5 billion in central bank reserves, loans and the sudden suspension of direct development aid. In 2022 there was a change in the drivers of humanitarian needs, as household shocks shifted from COVID-19 and conflict in 2021, to drought, climate change and economic shocks.Īfghanistan’s economic crisis is widespread, with more than half of households experiencing an economic shock in the last six months. ![]() ![]() Nevertheless, conflict, natural disasters, the lingering effects of war, and recent large-scale conflict displacement continue to prevent people from building resilience and moving towards recovery and solutions. While in previous years, humanitarian needs have been largely driven by conflict, the key drivers of humanitarian need in 2023 are multidimensional: drought, climate change, protection threats, particularly for women and girls, and the economic crisis. High levels of unemployment and sustained inflation of key commodity prices have caused the average household’s debt to increase, challenging people’s coping mechanisms and thwarting the already fragile economy’s ability to adapt to shocks. In 2023, a staggering 28.3 million people (two thirds of Afghanistan’s population) will need urgent humanitarian assistance in order to survive as the country enters its third consecutive year of drought-like conditions and the second year of crippling economic decline, while still reeling from the effects of 40 years of conflict and recurrent natural disasters. The population is expected to grow at 2.3 per cent per annum, one of the steepest rates in the region, and so the intertwined environmental, economic and protection crises, particularly for girls, will have a far-reaching and potentially catastrophic impact far into the future. In the absence of development activity, the Afghan people are experiencing a backwards slide evidenced by the surge of humanitarian needs across the country.Īfghanistan’s population was estimated to pass 43 million in 2022, with 49 per cent women and girls, and one of the highest youth populations in the world, with 47 per cent of the population under 15 years old. The collapse of the previous government resulted in a suspension of direct international development assistance, which previously accounted for 75 per cent of public expenditure, including the maintenance of the public health system. The end of the 20 year armed conflict between the Taliban and the Afghan National Security and Defence Forces in August 2021, and the simultaneous takeover of the country by the Taliban, has ushered in a new era characterized by rapid economic rapid economic decline, hunger and risk of malnutrition, inflation driven by global commodity shocks, drastic rises in both urban and rural poverty, a near-collapse of the national public health system, a stifling of the media and civil society sectors, and almost-total exclusion of half the population – women and girls – from public life. In addition to unimaginable human costs, this humanitarian crisis is reversing many of the gains of the last 20 years, including around women’s rights. ![]() Context, shocks/events, and impact of the crisisĪfghanistan is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis with a very real risk of systemic collapse and human catastrophe.
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